Criciuma 1-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Criciuma and RB Bragantino meet at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at 23:30 UTC.
Current Form
Criciuma's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma's home record at Estádio Heriberto Hülse: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
RB Bragantino (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Criciuma, 0.90 for RB Bragantino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Criciuma register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, RB Bragantino in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Criciuma — key trading statistics (22 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino — key trading statistics (22 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 82% and RB Bragantino 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 64% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.941 / defence 1.300 | RB Bragantino attack 1.052 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.041. Data: 22 Criciuma games / 60 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 40%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, RB Bragantino are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Criciuma 80% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Aug 2024, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Criciuma 1.32 / RB Bragantino 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.941 / def 1.300 | RB Bragantino attack 1.052 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.42
RB Bragantino xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Criciuma vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 28 August 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs RB Bragantino?
Criciuma 1 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Criciuma vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs RB Bragantino part of?
Criciuma vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 35% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Criciuma and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and RB Bragantino in?
Criciuma (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Criciuma's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.05x) against Criciuma's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.92
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.74
1.42
RB Bragantino xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
11%
9.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Criciuma and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.42 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Criciuma come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 7D 9L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.23 PPG from 22 outings (7W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Criciuma against 1.23 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Criciuma's home form reads 3W 6D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.67 points per game from 12 outings (1W 5D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Criciuma are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; RB Bragantino in 73%.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 6W 7D 9L in their last 22 games (1.14 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or RB Bragantino away?
Criciuma's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.25 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Criciuma
0
Draws
1
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and RB Bragantino?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 1, RB Bragantino have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when RB Bragantino 5-1 Criciuma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Criciuma see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Criciuma, 75% for RB Bragantino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Criciuma) and 50% (RB Bragantino).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Criciuma's games and 75% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Criciuma's recent games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Criciuma defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Criciuma beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.32 xG and RB Bragantino 1.42 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.94 / defence 1.30 against RB Bragantino attack 1.05 / defence 1.07, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 35% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 40%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Criciuma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 64%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (22 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (22 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Criciuma 1.14 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Criciuma win broke the near-deadlock. Criciuma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.