Criciuma 0-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Criciuma and Gremio meet at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Criciuma (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Criciuma's home record at Estádio Heriberto Hülse: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gremio have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Criciuma against 1.40 for Gremio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Criciuma — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Gremio — key trading statistics (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Criciuma 86% versus Gremio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 67% | Gremio 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.42 xG and Gremio 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 1.023 / defence 1.321 | Gremio attack 1.075 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.063. Data: 21 Criciuma games / 59 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 25% | Gremio 39%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Gremio 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Criciuma 90% | Gremio 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 35% | Draw 25% | Gremio 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Criciuma 1.42 / Gremio 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 1.023 / def 1.321 | Gremio attack 1.075 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Gremio (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Gremio xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Gremio kick off?
Criciuma vs Gremio kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Gremio?
Criciuma 0 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Criciuma vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Gremio part of?
Criciuma vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 35% chance of winning, Gremio a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Criciuma and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Gremio in?
Criciuma (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Criciuma's attack at 1.02x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (1.07x) against Criciuma's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
35%
2.82
25%
3.99
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.93
1.51
Gremio xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.77
10%
10.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.51 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Criciuma's recent record stands at 6W 7D 8L from 21 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 11L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Criciuma against 1.14 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Criciuma have managed 3W 5D 2L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 2W 2D 6L across 10 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Criciuma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Criciuma are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.95 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Gremio in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 games (1.19 PPG), while Gremio have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Gremio away?
Criciuma's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.40 PPG; Gremio away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Criciuma
0
Draws
1
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Gremio?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 1, Gremio have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2024, when Gremio 1-2 Criciuma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 90% for Criciuma, 50% for Gremio — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Criciuma) and 50% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gremio in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Criciuma's games and 50% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Criciuma's matches and 50% of Gremio's.
Do Criciuma and Gremio tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gremio in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gremio edge out Criciuma 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Criciuma 0-1 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.42 xG and Gremio 1.51 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Criciuma fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 1.02 / defence 1.32 against Gremio attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 35% | Draw 25% | Gremio 39%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 67%, Gremio 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Gremio's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Criciuma 1.19 PPG, Gremio 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.