Criciuma 2-2 Bahia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Bahia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Criciuma and Bahia meet at Estádio Heriberto Hülse in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 June 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Bahia away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.24 xG and Bahia 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.939 / defence 1.636 | Bahia attack 1.142 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.154. Data: 6 Criciuma games / 46 Bahia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 21% | Draw 22% | Bahia 58%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Bahia 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Bahia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 21% | Draw 22% | Bahia 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Criciuma 1.24 / Bahia 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.939 / def 1.636 | Bahia attack 1.142 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Bahia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Bahia xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Bahia kick off?
Criciuma vs Bahia kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Bahia?
Criciuma 2 - 2 Bahia.
Where is Criciuma vs Bahia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Bahia part of?
Criciuma vs Bahia is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Bahia?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 21% chance of winning, Bahia a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Bahia?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Criciuma and Bahia will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Bahia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Bahia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Criciuma and Bahia in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Bahia away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | CS 0.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.94) and Bahia's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bahia's attack (1.14x) against Criciuma's defence (1.64x) — and the away total comes out at 2.16.
These ratings are built from 6/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
21%
4.87
22%
4.56
58%
1.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Criciuma xG
Total xG
3.40
2.16
Bahia xG
4.87
21%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
1.74
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
12%
8.64
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
2%
42.03
17%
6.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Bahia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Bahia expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Criciuma and 2.16 for Bahia, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Bahia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Pre-Season
Bahia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
1
Draws
1
Bahia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Bahia?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Bahia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Bahia last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Bahia 1-0 Criciuma.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Bahia?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Bahia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Criciuma and Bahia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 9, as Criciuma and Bahia drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.24 xG and Bahia 2.16 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.94 / defence 1.64 against Bahia attack 1.14 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 21% | Draw 22% | Bahia 58%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.