Coritiba 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coritiba and Palmeiras meet at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 June 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.88 xG and Palmeiras 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.048 / defence 0.959 | Palmeiras attack 1.144 / defence 0.663. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 0.987. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.663 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Coritiba games / 48 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 28% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 39%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Palmeiras 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jun 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 28% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Coritiba 0.88 / Palmeiras 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 1.048 / def 0.959 | Palmeiras attack 1.144 / def 0.663 | league avg home 1.271 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Palmeiras xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Palmeiras kick off?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 12 June 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Coritiba 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Coritiba vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Palmeiras part of?
Coritiba vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 28% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Coritiba and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Palmeiras in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Palmeiras away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coritiba's attack at 1.05x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.66x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palmeiras's attack (1.14x) against Coritiba's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
28%
3.56
33%
3.01
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Coritiba xG
Total xG
1.97
1.08
Palmeiras xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.08 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Palmeiras have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palmeiras — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Coritiba
0
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Palmeiras have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2026, when Coritiba 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Coritiba 0-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 0.88 xG and Palmeiras 1.08 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Coritiba fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Palmeiras outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Palmeiras attack 1.14 / defence 0.66, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 28% | Draw 33% | Palmeiras 39%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.