Coritiba vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Mirassol travel to to take on Coritiba. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Coritiba stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba at this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mirassol — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mirassol away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Coritiba are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Coritiba register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Mirassol in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Coritiba, 0 for Mirassol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Coritiba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Coritiba trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Mirassol trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coritiba 52% and Mirassol 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 48% | Mirassol 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.41 xG and Mirassol 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.916 / defence 1.134 | Mirassol attack 0.799 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.169. Data: 25 Coritiba games / 63 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 42% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 26%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Mirassol 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 70% | Mirassol 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 42% | Draw 32% | Mirassol 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Coritiba 1.41 / Mirassol 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.916 / def 1.134 | Mirassol attack 0.799 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Mirassol xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Mirassol kick off?
Coritiba vs Mirassol is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026.
What competition is Coritiba vs Mirassol part of?
Coritiba vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 42% chance of winning, Mirassol a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coritiba and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Coritiba and Mirassol in?
Coritiba (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.92) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
42%
2.36
32%
3.14
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.46
1.06
Mirassol xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
6%
15.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.06 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 25 outings, Coritiba have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 10W 7D 8L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol's form line: 6W 7D 12L from 25 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Coritiba are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mirassol.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Coritiba have posted 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L).
On the road, Mirassol have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.08 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 68%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 10W 7D 8L in their last 25 games (1.48 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Mirassol away?
Coritiba's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.50 PPG; Mirassol away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Mirassol runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Mirassol?
From 1 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Mirassol have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Mirassol?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 58%, Mirassol 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Coritiba) and 42% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Mirassol in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Mirassol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Coritiba's games and 58% of Mirassol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Coritiba's recent games and 42% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Mirassol tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.