Coritiba 2-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Juventude fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 16 as Coritiba welcome Juventude to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Coritiba — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Coritiba's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 games at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Coritiba are significantly better at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventude have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coritiba at 1.10 PPG versus Juventude's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Coritiba in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Juventude in-play tendencies (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coritiba 53% and Juventude 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 53% | Juventude 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.40 xG and Juventude 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.902 / defence 1.035 | Juventude attack 0.898 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 0.984. Data: 15 Coritiba games / 53 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 48% | Draw 29% | Juventude 24%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.08 | Draw 3.45 | Juventude 4.17. Coritiba hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 38% | Juventude 70%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 48% | Draw 29% | Juventude 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Coritiba 1.40 / Juventude 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.902 / def 1.035 | Juventude attack 0.898 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.310 / away 0.984 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Juventude xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Juventude kick off?
Coritiba vs Juventude kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Juventude?
Coritiba 2 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Coritiba vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Juventude part of?
Coritiba vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 48% chance of winning, Juventude a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Coritiba and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Juventude?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coritiba and Juventude in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Juventude (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Coritiba's attack rating (0.90) and Juventude's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
48%
2.11
29%
3.49
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Coritiba xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Juventude xG
2.11
48%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
6%
16.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Coritiba and 0.91 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Coritiba's recent record stands at 5W 3D 7L from 15 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventude, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 8L across 15 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coritiba by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Juventude heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Coritiba are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Juventude's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coritiba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Coritiba are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.87 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 67%.
Last 15 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Juventude in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while Juventude have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Juventude away?
Coritiba's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.86 PPG; Juventude away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Coritiba and Juventude runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Coritiba
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Juventude?
From 2 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2022, when Juventude 0-1 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Juventude?
Coritiba have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 43%, Juventude 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Coritiba) and 43% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Coritiba have failed to score in 29% of games; Juventude in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Coritiba's games and 71% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Coritiba's recent games and 43% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coritiba and Juventude tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Juventude in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Coritiba and Juventude share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coritiba and Juventude finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.40 xG and Juventude 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Juventude outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Juventude attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 48% | Draw 29% | Juventude 24%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 53%, Juventude 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Coritiba arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Coritiba (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.