Coritiba 1-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coritiba vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 31 as Coritiba welcome Gremio to Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Gremio — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gremio's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Coritiba 0.90 PPG, Gremio 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Coritiba, 1 for Gremio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2023, ended 1–5 with Gremio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Coritiba in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Gremio in-play tendencies (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Coritiba 67% and Gremio 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Coritiba 67% | Gremio 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.74 xG and Gremio 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.844 / defence 1.379 | Gremio attack 1.154 / defence 1.481. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.075. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.481 — this is suppressing Coritiba's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Coritiba games / 30 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 24% | Gremio 38%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 2.56 | Draw 4.17 | Gremio 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.45. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.45 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coritiba at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.45 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coritiba 30% | Gremio 70%.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 39% | Draw 24% | Gremio 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 68% | xG Coritiba 1.74 / Gremio 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.844 / def 1.379 | Gremio attack 1.154 / def 1.481 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Gremio xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Gremio kick off?
Coritiba vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 1 November 2023 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What was the final score in Coritiba vs Gremio?
Coritiba 1 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Coritiba vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Gremio part of?
Coritiba vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 39% chance of winning, Gremio a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Coritiba and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Coritiba 0W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Coritiba and Gremio in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Coritiba's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.2%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
39%
2.58
24%
4.21
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Coritiba xG
Total xG
3.45
1.71
Gremio xG
2.58
39%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
7%
14.30
7%
15.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Coritiba and 1.71 for Gremio, a combined total of 3.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Coritiba's recent record stands at 6W 5D 19L from 30 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Gremio, meanwhile, have gone 15W 5D 10L across 30 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gremio by 0.90 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Coritiba heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Coritiba have managed 3W 3D 8L from 14 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gremio's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Coritiba are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.67 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coritiba have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Gremio in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Gremio in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 6W 5D 19L in their last 30 games (0.77 PPG), while Gremio have gone 15W 5D 10L in their last 30 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Gremio away?
Gremio's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 0.86 PPG; Gremio away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gremio have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Jun 2023, when Gremio won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Coritiba
0
Draws
3
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Gremio?
From 3 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 0, Gremio have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Gremio 1-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 43%, Gremio 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Coritiba) and 71% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coritiba have failed to score in 43% of games; Gremio in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Coritiba's games and 71% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Coritiba's matches and 71% of Gremio's.
Do Coritiba and Gremio tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Gremio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Coritiba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Coritiba 1-2 at Estádio Major Antônio Couto Pereira, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coritiba 1.74 xG and Gremio 1.71 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coritiba attack 0.84 / defence 1.38 against Gremio attack 1.15 / defence 1.48, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coritiba 39% | Draw 24% | Gremio 38%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coritiba 67%, Gremio 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coritiba's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gremio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.77. That form edge translated into the three points. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.