Coritiba vs Flamengo – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson model favours Flamengo (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coritiba face Flamengo.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Flamengo make the trip to to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.

Form

Coritiba (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at , Coritiba have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Flamengo have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Flamengo's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 5 meetings, Flamengo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Coritiba's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 56% versus Flamengo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 52% | Flamengo 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 1.07 xG and Flamengo 2.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 1.000 / defence 1.318 | Flamengo attack 1.378 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.178. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — the away xG of 2.14 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Coritiba games / 64 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Coritiba 16% | Draw 23% | Flamengo 60%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Flamengo 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 80% | Flamengo 50% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights