Coritiba vs Flamengo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (64%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Coritiba face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Flamengo make the trip to Estádio Couto Pereira to face Coritiba in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form
Coritiba (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Couto Pereira, Coritiba have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Flamengo have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Flamengo's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Coritiba have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Flamengo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Flamengo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Coritiba's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 May 2026, ended 0–3 with Flamengo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Flamengo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coritiba 48% versus Flamengo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coritiba 48% | Flamengo 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coritiba 0.95 xG and Flamengo 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coritiba attack 0.855 / defence 1.199 | Flamengo attack 1.635 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Flamengo's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.635 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Coritiba games / 71 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coritiba 14% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 64%. Fair-value odds: Coritiba 7.14 | Draw 4.55 | Flamengo 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (64%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Coritiba 70% | Flamengo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coritiba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estádio Couto Pereira • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coritiba 14% | Draw 22% | Flamengo 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Coritiba 0.95 / Flamengo 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Coritiba attack 0.855 / def 1.199 | Flamengo attack 1.635 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Coritiba xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Flamengo xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coritiba vs Flamengo kick off?
Coritiba vs Flamengo is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Estádio Couto Pereira.
Where is Coritiba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Couto Pereira.
What competition is Coritiba vs Flamengo part of?
Coritiba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Coritiba a 14% chance of winning, Flamengo a 64% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Coritiba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Coritiba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Record (5 meetings): Coritiba 1W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 4W.
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in?
Coritiba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Flamengo (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coritiba's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.64x) against Coritiba's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
14%
7.29
22%
4.55
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Coritiba xG
Total xG
3.14
2.19
Flamengo xG
7.29
14%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
11%
8.98
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
2%
65.50
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Coritiba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Coritiba and 2.19 for Flamengo, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Coritiba vs Flamengo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coritiba come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 9D 13L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Flamengo sit at 2.21 PPG from 33 outings (22W 7D 4L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Flamengo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.94 PPG clear of Coritiba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Coritiba's home form reads 6W 5D 6L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Flamengo have taken 2.00 points per game from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coritiba are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 2.06 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Flamengo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coritiba
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coritiba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Coritiba have gone 11W 9D 13L in their last 33 games (1.27 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 22W 7D 4L in their last 33 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coritiba at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coritiba at home: 1.35 PPG; Flamengo away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Coritiba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coritiba have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Flamengo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 30 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 3-0 on 16 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coritiba have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Coritiba
0
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coritiba and Flamengo?
From 5 meetings on record, Coritiba have won 1, Flamengo have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coritiba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Flamengo 3-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Coritiba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coritiba see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coritiba 59%, Flamengo 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Coritiba) and 71% (Flamengo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Flamengo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coritiba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coritiba play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Coritiba's games and 59% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coritiba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Coritiba's matches and 71% of Flamengo's.
Do Coritiba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Coritiba have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.