Corinthians 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Neo Química Arena plays host to Corinthians versus Vasco DA Gama in Serie A (matchday 13). Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Corinthians have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Corinthians have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasco DA Gama (all games): 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Corinthians, 0.90 for Vasco DA Gama — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Corinthians have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins, with Vasco DA Gama managing 1 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Corinthians 3–2 Vasco DA Gama — a Corinthians win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Corinthians and goals — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches and an average of 4.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama half-time and goal-timing data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 51% versus Vasco DA Gama 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 49% | Vasco DA Gama 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.729 / defence 0.912 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.111 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.039. Corinthians's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Data: built from Corinthians's last 50 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 50.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 31%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.49 | Draw 3.47 | Vasco DA Gama 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Corinthians 5 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Corinthians if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Corinthians 60% (last 10 home games) | Vasco DA Gama 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 40% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Corinthians 1.24 / Vasco DA Gama 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.729 / def 0.912 | Vasco DA Gama attack 1.111 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama FAQs
What time does Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 26 April 2026 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Corinthians 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 40% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Corinthians's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Vasco DA Gama's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (1.11x) against Corinthians's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Corinthians's last 50 games and Vasco DA Gama's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
40%
2.49
29%
3.47
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.29
1.05
Vasco DA Gama xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
9%
11.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.05 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 27W 22D 27L record — W-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Vasco DA Gama's form line: 27W 14D 35L from 76 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Corinthians against 1.25 for Vasco DA Gama. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 38 home games (18W 14D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Corinthians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Vasco DA Gama have gone 9W 5D 24L from their last 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Corinthians are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.29 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Corinthians (Home) vs Vasco DA Gama (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Corinthians
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Form FAQs
What form are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 games (1.36 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 27W 14D 35L in their last 76 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Corinthians's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.79 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Corinthians won Corinthians 3-0 Vasco DA Gama on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Corinthians
0
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Corinthians have won 6, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Vasco DA Gama 3-2 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 70% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 58%, Vasco DA Gama 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Corinthians) and 58% (Vasco DA Gama). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Corinthians vs Vasco DA Gama Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Corinthians's recent matches and 45% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Corinthians's matches and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Corinthians and Vasco DA Gama matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Corinthians's recent matches and 74% of Vasco DA Gama's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Corinthians edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.24 xG and Vasco DA Gama 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vasco DA Gama landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.73 / defence 0.91 against Vasco DA Gama attack 1.11 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 40% | Draw 29% | Vasco DA Gama 31%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 49%, Vasco DA Gama 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.36 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.