Corinthians 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host RB Bragantino at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Corinthians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Corinthians at 1.20 PPG versus RB Bragantino's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Corinthians register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Bragantino in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 2, RB Bragantino 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
RB Bragantino trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 51% versus RB Bragantino 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 35% | RB Bragantino 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.46 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.047 / defence 1.076 | RB Bragantino attack 1.048 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.063. Data: 59 Corinthians games / 57 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 43% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 31%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 60% | RB Bragantino 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 43% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Corinthians 1.46 / RB Bragantino 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.047 / def 1.076 | RB Bragantino attack 1.048 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Corinthians 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino part of?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 43% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Corinthians and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
Record (6 meetings): Corinthians 2W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 3W.
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in?
Corinthians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (1.05) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.88
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
RB Bragantino xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
13%
7.66
7%
13.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Corinthians and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.20 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 57 games, going 15W 22D 20L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.54 PPG from 57 outings (24W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.18 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 8W 16D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.54 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.28 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: RB Bragantino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 15W 22D 20L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 16D 17L in their last 57 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or RB Bragantino away?
Corinthians's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.43 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Corinthians or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
5
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, RB Bragantino have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Corinthians 2-0 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 68%, RB Bragantino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Corinthians) and 39% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Corinthians's games and 50% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Corinthians's recent games and 39% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and RB Bragantino finished level at 1-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.46 xG and RB Bragantino 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.05 / defence 1.08 against RB Bragantino attack 1.05 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 43% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 31%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 35%, RB Bragantino 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.18 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.