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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Corinthians and Juventude share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians and Juventude finished level at 1-1 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.78 xG and Juventude 0.96 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Juventude attack 0.96 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 57% | Draw 23% | Juventude 20%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 49%, Juventude 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Juventude's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.36 PPG, Juventude 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights