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Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians beat Internacional 4-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.23 xG and Internacional 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Internacional outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.13 / defence 1.09 against Internacional attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 39% | Draw 35% | Internacional 26%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 45%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.39 PPG, Internacional 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights