Corinthians 2-2 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Gremio travel to Neo Química Arena to take on Corinthians. The game is scheduled for Friday 26 July 2024, 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Corinthians have posted 3W 4D 3L at Neo Química Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gremio — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Corinthians 1.20 PPG, Gremio 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 2, Gremio 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gremio in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 48% versus Gremio 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 33% | Gremio 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.57 xG and Gremio 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.027 / defence 1.023 | Gremio attack 0.753 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.359 / away 1.013. Data: 56 Corinthians games / 54 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 27% | Gremio 18%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Gremio 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 60% | Gremio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 55% | Draw 27% | Gremio 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 43% | xG Corinthians 1.57 / Gremio 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.027 / def 1.023 | Gremio attack 0.753 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.359 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Gremio xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Gremio kick off?
Corinthians vs Gremio kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 26 July 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Gremio?
Corinthians 2 - 2 Gremio.
Where is Corinthians vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Gremio part of?
Corinthians vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 55% chance of winning, Gremio a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Corinthians and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Gremio?
Record (4 meetings): Corinthians 2W | Draws 2 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Gremio in?
Corinthians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
55%
1.80
27%
3.77
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.35
0.78
Gremio xG
1.80
55%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
4%
26.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.78 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 15W 20D 19L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 25W 7D 22L from 54 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.20 PPG, Gremio on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.46 PPG from 26 outings (8W 14D 4L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 7W 4D 15L from 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.39 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Gremio in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 15W 20D 19L in their last 54 games (1.20 PPG), while Gremio have gone 25W 7D 22L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Gremio away?
Corinthians's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.46 PPG; Gremio away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Corinthians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Corinthians
4
Draws
0
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 5, Gremio have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gremio 1-3 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Gremio?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 65%, Gremio 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Corinthians) and 65% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Gremio in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Gremio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Corinthians's games and 62% of Gremio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Corinthians's recent games and 65% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Gremio tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Gremio in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and Gremio share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and Gremio finished level at 2-2 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.57 xG and Gremio 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Gremio attack 0.75 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 55% | Draw 27% | Gremio 18%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 33%, Gremio 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.20 PPG, Gremio 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.