Corinthians 3-1 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Corinthians at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Coritiba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Coritiba make the trip to Neo Química Arena to face Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 July 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form
Corinthians (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Corinthians have posted 6W 4D 0L at Neo Química Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Coritiba have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Coritiba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Corinthians's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Coritiba's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Corinthians half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Coritiba half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 35% versus Coritiba 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 35% | Coritiba 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.69 xG and Coritiba 0.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.902 / defence 0.670 | Coritiba attack 0.820 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 0.951. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.670 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Corinthians games / 17 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 66% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 11%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Coritiba 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Coritiba's lower xG of 0.52 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 30% | Coritiba 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Jul 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 66% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 33% | xG Corinthians 1.69 / Coritiba 0.52 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.902 / def 0.670 | Coritiba attack 0.820 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.304 / away 0.951 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.52
Coritiba xG
33%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Coritiba kick off?
Corinthians vs Coritiba kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 21 July 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Coritiba?
Corinthians 3 - 1 Coritiba.
Where is Corinthians vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Coritiba part of?
Corinthians vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 66% chance of winning, Coritiba a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Corinthians and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Coritiba?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Corinthians and Coritiba in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Coritiba (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.90) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Coritiba's attack (0.82x) against Corinthians's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.52.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.6%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.35
11%
9.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.21
0.52
Coritiba xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
9.09
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
59%
1.69
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
39%
2.55
2%
49.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 9.7 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.6 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 0.4 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.52 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 17 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 8W 5D 4L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Coritiba's form line: 5W 4D 8L from 17 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Coritiba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Corinthians are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coritiba.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Corinthians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 0W 2D 6L from 8 away games — 0.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Coritiba's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Corinthians are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.18 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Coritiba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 games (1.71 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 8L in their last 17 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Coritiba away?
Corinthians's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 2.25 PPG; Coritiba away: 0.25 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Coritiba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Coritiba in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Corinthians have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Coritiba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Corinthians
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Coritiba?
From 5 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Corinthians 0-2 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Coritiba?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 25%, Coritiba 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 12% (Corinthians) and 62% (Coritiba).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Coritiba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Coritiba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Corinthians's recent matches and 62% of Coritiba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Corinthians's recent games and 62% of Coritiba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Coritiba tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Coritiba 3-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.69 xG and Coritiba 0.52 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.90 / defence 0.67 against Coritiba attack 0.82 / defence 1.44, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 66% | Draw 23% | Coritiba 11%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 35%, Coritiba 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Coritiba's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.