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Shock result as Ceara defy the odds to beat Corinthians 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat Corinthians 0-1 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.23 xG and Ceara 0.62 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.00 / defence 0.86 against Ceara attack 0.74 / defence 0.88, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 51% | Draw 30% | Ceara 19%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Ceara win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 41%, Ceara 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Ceara's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.31 PPG, Ceara 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights