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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Corinthians and Botafogo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Corinthians and Botafogo finished level at 2-2 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 0.91 xG and Botafogo 0.85 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Botafogo outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Botafogo attack 0.94 / defence 0.63, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Corinthians 35% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 32%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 48%, Botafogo 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Corinthians's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Botafogo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Corinthians (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights