Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chapecoense-sc face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Chapecoense-sc host Palmeiras at Arena Condá in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chapecoense-sc — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Chapecoense-sc's home record at Arena Condá: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Palmeiras, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Chapecoense-sc.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Palmeiras winning.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Chapecoense-sc in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chapecoense-sc 62% versus Palmeiras 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chapecoense-sc 59% | Palmeiras 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 0.77 xG and Palmeiras 1.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.877 / defence 1.584 | Palmeiras attack 1.058 / defence 0.594. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.120. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.594 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Chapecoense-sc games / 71 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 13% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 62%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 7.69 | Draw 4.00 | Palmeiras 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Chapecoense-sc 80% | Palmeiras 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 13% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 47% | xG Chapecoense-sc 0.77 / Palmeiras 1.88 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.877 / def 1.584 | Palmeiras attack 1.058 / def 0.594 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
1.88
Palmeiras xG
47%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras is scheduled to kick off at 21:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Arena Condá.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 13% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Chapecoense-sc 0W | Draws 0 | Palmeiras 3W.
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras in?
Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Chapecoense-sc's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.59x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Chapecoense-sc's defence, projects 1.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
13%
7.65
25%
4.03
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.5%
Away win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.65
1.88
Palmeiras xG
7.65
13%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
15%
6.53
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
49.95
29%
3.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 13.3 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 1.88 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Chapecoense-sc have picked up 0.66 PPG on a 4W 9D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Palmeiras's form line: 20W 9D 3L from 32 games, 2.16 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Chapecoense-sc.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Chapecoense-sc have posted 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L).
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 7W 6D 2L from 15 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Chapecoense-sc are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.06 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.69 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chapecoense-sc have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Chapecoense-sc have gone 4W 9D 19L in their last 32 games (0.66 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 20W 9D 3L in their last 32 (2.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chapecoense-sc at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chapecoense-sc at home: 0.93 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Chapecoense-sc or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chapecoense-sc have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
0
Draws
3
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
From 3 meetings on record, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Palmeiras have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Palmeiras 1-0 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chapecoense-sc 73%, Palmeiras 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Chapecoense-sc) and 40% (Palmeiras). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 60%; Palmeiras in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chapecoense-sc play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Chapecoense-sc's games and 40% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chapecoense-sc vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Chapecoense-sc's matches and 40% of Palmeiras's.
Do Chapecoense-sc and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Chapecoense-sc have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.