Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Chapecoense-sc face Atletico-MG.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Condá plays host to Chapecoense-sc versus Atletico-MG in Serie A (matchday 9). Kick-off: Thursday 2 April 2026 at 23:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Atletico-MG's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atletico-MG away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2021, ended Chapecoense-sc 2–2 Atletico-MG — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chapecoense-sc 1.47 xG and Atletico-MG 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.989 / defence 1.205 | Atletico-MG attack 0.706 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.025. Atletico-MG's attack rating of 0.706 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Chapecoense-sc's defence rating of 1.205 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atletico-MG's projected output up. Data: built from Chapecoense-sc's last 7 games and Atletico-MG's last 46.
Result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22%. Fair-value odds: Chapecoense-sc 1.96 | Draw 3.74 | Atletico-MG 4.50. Chapecoense-sc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chapecoense-sc as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, matchday 9 | Venue: Arena Condá • Kick-off: Thursday 2 April 2026 at 23:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Chapecoense-sc 1.47 / Atletico-MG 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Chapecoense-sc attack 0.989 / def 1.205 | Atletico-MG attack 0.706 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Chapecoense-sc xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Atletico-MG xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG FAQs
What time does Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 23:00 UK time on Thursday 2 April 2026 at Arena Condá.
What was the final score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Chapecoense-sc 0 - 4 Atletico-MG.
Where is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Arena Condá.
What competition is Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG part of?
Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG is a Serie A fixture (matchday 9) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Chapecoense-sc a 51% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chapecoense-sc's attack at 0.99x the league average against Atletico-MG's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (0.71x) against Chapecoense-sc's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Chapecoense-sc's last 7 games and Atletico-MG's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.74
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Chapecoense-sc xG
Total xG
2.34
0.87
Atletico-MG xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Chapecoense-sc and 0.87 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Chapecoense-sc (Home) vs Atletico-MG (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico-MG won Chapecoense-sc 0-4 Atletico-MG on 2 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chapecoense-sc
3
Draws
1
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico-MG H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Atletico-MG have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Atletico-MG 1-1 Chapecoense-sc.
Who has won more matches between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chapecoense-sc home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Atletico-MG run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Chapecoense-sc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Chapecoense-sc 0-4 at Arena Condá, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chapecoense-sc 1.47 xG and Atletico-MG 0.87 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Atletico-MG outscored their 0.87 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chapecoense-sc attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Atletico-MG attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chapecoense-sc 51% | Draw 27% | Atletico-MG 22%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Atletico-MG win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.