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Shock result as Ceara defy the odds to beat RB Bragantino 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ceara beat RB Bragantino 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.01 xG and RB Bragantino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. RB Bragantino landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.72 / defence 1.06 against RB Bragantino attack 1.02 / defence 1.09, drawn from 18/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ceara 32% | Draw 30% | RB Bragantino 38%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ceara win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 33%, RB Bragantino 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ceara's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ceara 1.22 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ceara win broke the near-deadlock. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights