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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 4

Kick-off

Wed 16 Apr 2025

22:30

Venue

Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Botafogo Win

46%

Botafogo

2.17

37%

Draw

2.69

17%

Sao Paulo

5.98

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

18.0%

Home win

Most likely

0 – 0

14.4%

Draw

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.25

Botafogo xG

Total xG

1.94

0.69

Sao Paulo xG

46%
37%
17%
BotafogoDrawSao Paulo

2.17

46%

Home win

2.69

37%

Draw

5.98

17%

Away win

Goals Markets

58%

Over 1.5

1.72

42%

Under 1.5

2.38

31%

Over 2.5

3.23

69%

Under 2.5

1.45

13%

Over 3.5

7.69

87%

Under 3.5

1.15

5%

Over 4.5

20.00

95%

Under 4.5

1.05

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.55

61%

BTTS No

1.64

Clean Sheet

50%

Botafogo

1.99

29%

Sao Paulo

3.49

Win to Nil

23%

Botafogo

4.31

5%

Sao Paulo

20.88

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 14.4 9.9 3.4 0.8 0.1
1 18.0 12.4 4.3 1.0 0.2
2 11.3 7.7 2.7 0.6 0.1
3 4.7 3.2 1.1 0.3
4 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.1
5 0.4 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.251
λ Away (xG) 0.687
Total xG 1.938
League avg home goals 1.379
League avg away goals 0.911
Botafogo attack strength 1.077
Botafogo defence strength 0.839
Sao Paulo attack strength 0.899
Sao Paulo defence strength 0.842
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 41 / 41