Botafogo vs Sao Paulo – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.01) and Sao Paulo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (0.98x) against Botafogo's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.11
31%
3.22
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.13
0.81
Sao Paulo xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 12.7 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.81 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.