Botafogo 1-2 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 68% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Botafogo face Remo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Olimpico Joao Havelange to face Botafogo in Serie A (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Botafogo (all games): 5W 5D 0L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Botafogo have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 2.52 xG and Remo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.297 / defence 1.340 | Remo attack 0.783 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.046. Botafogo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.297 — their 2.52 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Remo's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Botafogo's projected output up. Remo's attack rating of 0.783 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Botafogo's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Remo's projected output up. Data: built from Botafogo's last 50 games and Remo's last 13.
Result probabilities: Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.46 | Draw 5.85 | Remo 6.87. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (68%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.52 / 1.10) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 68% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 14 | Venue: Olimpico Joao Havelange • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% (Under 30%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Botafogo 2.52 / Remo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.297 / def 1.340 | Remo attack 0.783 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.046 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Remo xG
61%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Botafogo vs Remo FAQs
What time does Botafogo vs Remo kick off?
Botafogo vs Remo kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Olimpico Joao Havelange.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Remo?
Botafogo 1 - 2 Remo.
Where is Botafogo vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Olimpico Joao Havelange.
What competition is Botafogo vs Remo part of?
Botafogo vs Remo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 14) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 68% chance of winning, Remo a 15% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Botafogo and Remo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Botafogo vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against Remo's defensive record (1.34x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.52. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.78x) against Botafogo's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from Botafogo's last 50 games and Remo's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.5%), 1-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
68%
1.46
17%
5.85
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Botafogo xG
Total xG
3.62
1.10
Remo xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.85
17%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
8%
12.48
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
1%
85.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Botafogo vs Remo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.10 for Remo, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Botafogo (Home) vs Remo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Botafogo
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2026 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 29 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Botafogo
0
Draws
2
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Botafogo vs Remo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Remo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Botafogo have won 0, Remo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Remo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2026: Remo 2-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Remo?
Remo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Remo defy the odds to beat Botafogo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Remo beat Botafogo 1-2 at Olimpico Joao Havelange, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 2.52 xG and Remo 1.10 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Remo outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.30 / defence 1.34 against Remo attack 0.78 / defence 1.34, drawn from 50/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 68% | Draw 17% | Remo 15%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Remo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.