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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Internacional.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Internacional 4-0 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.52 xG and Internacional 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Internacional landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Internacional attack 1.13 / defence 0.99, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 51% | Draw 27% | Internacional 22%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.88 PPG, Internacional 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights