Botafogo 1-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Internacional travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024, 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's home record at Estádio Nilton Santos: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Internacional — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Botafogo are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 2, Internacional 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Internacional winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Internacional trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 49% versus Internacional 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 41% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.28 xG and Internacional 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.168 / defence 0.758 | Internacional attack 0.881 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.063. Internacional's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Botafogo games / 51 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 49% | Draw 32% | Internacional 19%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.04 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 5.26. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 50% | Internacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 49% | Draw 32% | Internacional 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Botafogo 1.28 / Internacional 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.168 / def 0.758 | Internacional attack 0.881 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Internacional xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Internacional kick off?
Botafogo vs Internacional kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Botafogo 1 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Botafogo vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Internacional part of?
Botafogo vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 49% chance of winning, Internacional a 19% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Botafogo and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 0 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Internacional (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.17x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
49%
2.05
32%
3.14
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Botafogo xG
Total xG
1.99
0.71
Internacional xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.71 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo come into this having played 51 games, going 25W 13D 13L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.45 PPG from 51 outings (20W 14D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.73 PPG, Internacional on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Botafogo's home form reads 15W 5D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 1.32 points per game from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.14 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Internacional in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 games (1.73 PPG), while Internacional have gone 20W 14D 17L in their last 51 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Internacional away?
Botafogo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.00 PPG; Internacional away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Internacional in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2025, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 5, Internacional have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Botafogo 2-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Internacional?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 48%, Internacional 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Botafogo) and 36% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Botafogo's recent matches and 44% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Botafogo's recent games and 36% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Internacional tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Internacional in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Internacional 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Internacional 1-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.28 xG and Internacional 0.71 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.17 / defence 0.76 against Internacional attack 0.88 / defence 0.79, drawn from 55/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 49% | Draw 32% | Internacional 19%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 41%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Internacional's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.73 PPG, Internacional 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.