Botafogo 0-0 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gremio make the trip to Arena BRB Mané Garrincha to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 September 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's home record at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Botafogo are significantly better at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha than their overall form suggests.
Gremio (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Botafogo, 1 for Gremio and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Jun 2024, ended 2–1 with Botafogo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Botafogo — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Gremio — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 50% versus Gremio 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 45% | Gremio 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.67 xG and Gremio 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.225 / defence 0.888 | Gremio attack 1.115 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.021. Data: 65 Botafogo games / 64 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 24% | Gremio 23%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Gremio 4.35. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 40% | Gremio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena BRB Mané Garrincha • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Sep 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 53% | Draw 24% | Gremio 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Botafogo 1.67 / Gremio 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.225 / def 0.888 | Gremio attack 1.115 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Gremio xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Gremio kick off?
Botafogo vs Gremio kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Gremio?
Botafogo 0 - 0 Gremio.
Where is Botafogo vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha.
What competition is Botafogo vs Gremio part of?
Botafogo vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 53% chance of winning, Gremio a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Botafogo and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Gremio?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 0 | Gremio 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Gremio in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Gremio (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.23) and Gremio's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (1.11x) against Botafogo's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.11
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.01
Gremio xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
4%
23.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.01 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 34W 15D 15L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 30W 9D 25L from 64 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Botafogo against 1.55 for Gremio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 2.10 PPG from 31 outings (20W 5D 6L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 10W 6D 15L from 31 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Gremio in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 34W 15D 15L in their last 64 games (1.83 PPG), while Gremio have gone 30W 9D 25L in their last 64 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Gremio away?
Botafogo's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.10 PPG; Gremio away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Gremio in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Botafogo
2
Draws
2
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Gremio?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 3, Gremio have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 5 February 2026, when Gremio 5-3 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Gremio?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 45%, Gremio 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Botafogo) and 64% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Gremio in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Botafogo's recent matches and 61% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Botafogo's recent games and 64% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Gremio tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gremio in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Botafogo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo and Gremio finished level at 0-0 at Arena BRB Mané Garrincha, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.67 xG and Gremio 1.01 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Gremio landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.23 / defence 0.89 against Gremio attack 1.11 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 53% | Draw 24% | Gremio 23%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 45%, Gremio 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gremio's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.83 PPG, Gremio 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.