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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Fortaleza EC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Botafogo beat Fortaleza EC 4-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.92 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.55 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.19 / defence 1.25 against Fortaleza EC attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 22% | Fortaleza EC 31%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Fortaleza EC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Botafogo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Fortaleza EC's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.85 PPG, Fortaleza EC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights