Botafogo 4-1 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Botafogo welcome Flamengo to Estádio Nilton Santos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Botafogo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Flamengo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 2.00 PPG versus Flamengo's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Botafogo, 2 for Flamengo and 0 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with Botafogo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Flamengo in-play and half-time data (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 51% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 46% | Flamengo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.25 xG and Flamengo 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.072 / defence 0.931 | Flamengo attack 1.352 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.054. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.352 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Botafogo games / 59 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Flamengo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Flamengo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Flamengo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Botafogo 1.25 / Flamengo 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.072 / def 0.931 | Flamengo attack 1.352 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Flamengo xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Flamengo kick off?
Botafogo vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Botafogo 4 - 1 Flamengo.
Where is Botafogo vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Flamengo part of?
Botafogo vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 35% chance of winning, Flamengo a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Botafogo and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
Record (5 meetings): Botafogo 3W | Draws 0 | Flamengo 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Flamengo's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
35%
2.90
27%
3.68
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.57
1.33
Flamengo xG
2.90
35%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
10.91
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo's recent record stands at 30W 14D 15L from 59 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 14L across 59 games — 1.81 PPG, with W-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.76 PPG, Flamengo on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 17W 5D 6L from 28 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 14W 7D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.54 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Flamengo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 games (1.76 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 31W 14D 14L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Flamengo away?
Botafogo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.00 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Flamengo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Flamengo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Aug 2024, when Botafogo won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Flamengo specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
1
Draws
4
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Flamengo?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Flamengo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Botafogo 0-3 Flamengo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 43%, Flamengo 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Botafogo) and 57% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Botafogo's recent matches and 61% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Botafogo's recent games and 57% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Flamengo tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Botafogo run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Flamengo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Flamengo 4-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.25 xG and Flamengo 1.33 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Flamengo attack 1.35 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 35% | Draw 27% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 46%, Flamengo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.76 PPG, Flamengo 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.