Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 45%, yet in-form Atletico Paranaense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Wednesday 19 June 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Botafogo have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estádio Nilton Santos — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico Paranaense are 0.60 PPG clear of Botafogo in recent Serie A fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Botafogo lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 43% versus Atletico Paranaense 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 40% | Atletico Paranaense 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.34 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.143 / defence 0.902 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.884 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.168. Data: 47 Botafogo games / 47 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 25%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.22 | Draw 3.23 | Atletico Paranaense 4.00. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Paranaense (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Botafogo 70% | Atletico Paranaense 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 19 Jun 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 45% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Botafogo 1.34 / Atletico Paranaense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.143 / def 0.902 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.884 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Atletico Paranaense xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 19 June 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Botafogo 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 45% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 25% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (4 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 1 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in?
Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.14x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.88x) against Botafogo's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
45%
2.25
31%
3.23
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.27
0.93
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.25
45%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.93 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo's recent record stands at 33W 18D 25L from 76 games, a 1.54 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 30W 24D 22L across 76 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Botafogo against 1.50 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 17W 8D 13L from 38 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 9W 10D 19L across 38 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.30 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 18D 25L in their last 76 games (1.54 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 30W 24D 22L in their last 76 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Botafogo's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.55 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 42%, Atletico Paranaense 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Botafogo) and 37% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 26% of games; Atletico Paranaense in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Botafogo's recent matches and 45% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Botafogo's recent games and 37% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.34 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.90 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 45% | Draw 31% | Atletico Paranaense 25%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 40%, Atletico Paranaense 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.54 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.