Botafogo 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Botafogo have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estádio Nilton Santos — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Botafogo are significantly better at Estádio Nilton Santos than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Botafogo against 1.70 for Atletico Paranaense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Botafogo lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jun 2023, ended 0–1 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 38% versus Atletico Paranaense 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 38% | Atletico Paranaense 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.52 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.254 / defence 0.808 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.071 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.051. Botafogo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Botafogo games / 65 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 21%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.00 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico Paranaense 4.76. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Atletico Paranaense 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 50% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Botafogo 1.52 / Atletico Paranaense 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.254 / def 0.808 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.071 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Atletico Paranaense xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Botafogo 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 50% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 21% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 2W.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in?
Botafogo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.25x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.07x) against Botafogo's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
50%
1.99
29%
3.51
21%
4.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.43
0.91
Atletico Paranaense xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.73
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
5%
21.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.91 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo's recent record stands at 33W 12D 20L from 65 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 19L across 65 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Botafogo against 1.57 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 17W 5D 10L from 32 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 9W 7D 16L across 32 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Atletico Paranaense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.35 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 33W 12D 20L in their last 65 games (1.71 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 28W 18D 19L in their last 65 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Botafogo's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.75 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Atletico Paranaense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 7 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 38%, Atletico Paranaense 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Botafogo) and 41% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Atletico Paranaense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Botafogo's recent matches and 44% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Botafogo's recent games and 41% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 28, as Botafogo and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.52 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.91 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.25 / defence 0.81 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.07 / defence 0.90, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 50% | Draw 29% | Atletico Paranaense 21%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Atletico Paranaense 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.71 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.