Botafogo 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico-MG at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Atletico-MG encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Nilton Santos plays host to Botafogo versus Atletico-MG in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 17 July 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 4L across 7 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Atletico-MG's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Atletico-MG, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico-MG's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Atletico-MG are 0.90 PPG clear of Botafogo in recent Serie A fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Botafogo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Atletico-MG goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 50% versus Atletico-MG 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 38% | Atletico-MG 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 0.94 xG and Atletico-MG 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 0.732 / defence 1.243 | Atletico-MG attack 1.158 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 0.927. Botafogo's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Botafogo games / 54 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Atletico-MG 2.22. Atletico-MG hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico-MG as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico-MG if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Botafogo 57% | Atletico-MG 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Botafogo 0.94 / Atletico-MG 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 0.732 / def 1.243 | Atletico-MG attack 1.158 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.296 / away 0.927 • Poisson stance: Atletico-MG (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Botafogo 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG part of?
Botafogo vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 26% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atletico-MG the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Botafogo and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in?
Botafogo (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Atletico-MG (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (0.73) and Atletico-MG's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico-MG's attack (1.16x) against Botafogo's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico-MG Win
26%
3.92
29%
3.40
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.27
1.33
Atletico-MG xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
7%
14.90
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.33 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Botafogo come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 3D 7L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atletico-MG sit at 1.75 PPG from 16 outings (7W 7D 2L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Atletico-MG is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico-MG carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Botafogo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Botafogo's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Atletico-MG have taken 1.43 points per game from 7 outings (2W 4D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico-MG come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Botafogo are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Atletico-MG are on 1.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Atletico-MG in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Atletico-MG
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Atletico-MG in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 7L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Atletico-MG have gone 7W 7D 2L in their last 16 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Atletico-MG away?
Atletico-MG's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.00 PPG; Atletico-MG away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Atletico-MG been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Atletico-MG in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Botafogo won 3-0 on 8 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Atletico-MG — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Botafogo
2
Draws
3
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
From 9 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 4, Atletico-MG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Atletico-MG?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Atletico-MG see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 57%, Atletico-MG 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Botafogo) and 43% (Atletico-MG).
On the defensive side: Atletico-MG in 43%; Botafogo have failed to score in 29% of games; Atletico-MG in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Atletico-MG?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Botafogo's games and 57% of Atletico-MG's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Botafogo vs Atletico-MG usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Botafogo's recent games and 43% of Atletico-MG's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico-MG edge out Botafogo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Botafogo 0-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 0.94 xG and Atletico-MG 1.33 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Botafogo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 0.73 / defence 1.24 against Atletico-MG attack 1.16 / defence 0.99, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 26% | Draw 29% | Atletico-MG 45%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 38%, Atletico-MG 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Atletico-MG's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico-MG arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.31. Form held, and they took the win. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.