Botafogo 2-0 America Mineiro – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Botafogo at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs America Mineiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host America Mineiro at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
America Mineiro — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Botafogo 1.60 PPG, America Mineiro 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Botafogo, 0 for America Mineiro and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Botafogo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
America Mineiro in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 40% versus America Mineiro 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 37% | America Mineiro 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 2.04 xG and America Mineiro 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.178 / defence 0.674 | America Mineiro attack 1.123 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.118. America Mineiro bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Botafogo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.674 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Botafogo games / 45 America Mineiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 12%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | America Mineiro 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 30% | America Mineiro 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs America Mineiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Botafogo 2.04 / America Mineiro 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.178 / def 0.674 | America Mineiro attack 1.123 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
America Mineiro xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs America Mineiro kick off?
Botafogo vs America Mineiro kicked off at 23:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Botafogo 2 - 0 America Mineiro.
Where is Botafogo vs America Mineiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs America Mineiro part of?
Botafogo vs America Mineiro is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 63% chance of winning, America Mineiro a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Botafogo and America Mineiro will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs America Mineiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 2 | America Mineiro 0W.
What form are Botafogo and America Mineiro in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. America Mineiro (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.18) and America Mineiro's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 2.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, America Mineiro's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
63%
1.59
25%
4.05
12%
8.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.89
0.85
America Mineiro xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
8.12
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
62.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and America Mineiro expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.85 for America Mineiro, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs America Mineiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Botafogo have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 15W 8D 15L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
America Mineiro's form line: 15W 8D 15L from 38 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.39 PPG, America Mineiro on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Botafogo have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
On the road, America Mineiro have gone 6W 4D 9L from 19 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; America Mineiro are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
America Mineiro
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and America Mineiro in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while America Mineiro have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or America Mineiro away?
Botafogo's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 1.16 PPG; America Mineiro away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and America Mineiro runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Botafogo's record when hosting America Mineiro specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Botafogo
2
Draws
0
America Mineiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, America Mineiro have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and America Mineiro last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2023, when America Mineiro 1-2 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and America Mineiro?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
America Mineiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 37%, America Mineiro 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Botafogo) and 42% (America Mineiro).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Botafogo have failed to score in 42% of games; America Mineiro in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / America Mineiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play America Mineiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Botafogo's recent matches and 42% of America Mineiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs America Mineiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Botafogo's recent games and 42% of America Mineiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and America Mineiro tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, America Mineiro in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Botafogo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over America Mineiro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat America Mineiro 2-0 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 2.04 xG and America Mineiro 0.85 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. America Mineiro landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.18 / defence 0.67 against America Mineiro attack 1.12 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 63% | Draw 25% | America Mineiro 12%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 37%, America Mineiro 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
America Mineiro's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.39 PPG, America Mineiro 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. America Mineiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.