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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 35

Kick-off

Sun 23 Nov 2025

19:00

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bahia Win

53%

Bahia

1.89

23%

Draw

4.28

24%

Vasco DA Gama

4.22

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.0%

Home win

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.77

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.88

1.11

Vasco DA Gama xG

53%
23%
24%
BahiaDrawVasco DA Gama

1.89

53%

Home win

4.28

23%

Draw

4.22

24%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

55%

Over 2.5

1.82

45%

Under 2.5

2.22

33%

Over 3.5

3.03

67%

Under 3.5

1.49

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

56%

BTTS Yes

1.80

44%

BTTS No

2.25

Clean Sheet

33%

Bahia

3.02

17%

Vasco DA Gama

5.88

Win to Nil

18%

Bahia

5.71

4%

Vasco DA Gama

24.85

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6 6.2 3.4 1.3 0.4 0.1
1 10.0 11.0 6.1 2.2 0.6 0.1
2 8.8 9.8 5.4 2.0 0.6 0.1
3 5.2 5.8 3.2 1.2 0.3 0.1
4 2.3 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
5 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.772
λ Away (xG) 1.106
Total xG 2.878
League avg home goals 1.422
League avg away goals 1.021
Bahia attack strength 1.170
Bahia defence strength 0.928
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.167
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 1.065
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 72 / 72