Bahia 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Vasco DA Gama travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023, 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bahia at 0.90 PPG versus Vasco DA Gama's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bahia have won 1, Vasco DA Gama 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Bahia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 45% versus Vasco DA Gama 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bahia 50% | Vasco DA Gama 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.88 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.156 / defence 1.070 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.878 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 0.909. Vasco DA Gama bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Bahia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Bahia games / 20 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 15%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Vasco DA Gama 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Bahia 70% | Vasco DA Gama 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Bahia 1.88 / Vasco DA Gama 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.156 / def 1.070 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.878 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.343 / away 0.909 • Poisson stance: Bahia (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
50%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 60% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bahia and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (1 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in?
Bahia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.16) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.09
15%
6.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.73
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
6.54
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
26%
3.89
2%
42.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bahia and 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vasco DA Gama sit at 0.80 PPG from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.05 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vasco DA Gama have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Bahia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.50 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bahia or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Bahia's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bahia
1
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Bahia have won 4, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bahia at 70%, Vasco DA Gama at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Bahia) and 40% (Vasco DA Gama). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Bahia's games and 70% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bahia's matches and 40% of Vasco DA Gama's.
Do Bahia and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 22, as Bahia and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.88 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.16 / defence 1.07 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.88 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 60% | Draw 24% | Vasco DA Gama 15%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Vasco DA Gama 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.05 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.