Bahia 2-2 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 57% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Santos make the trip to Arena Fonte Nova to face Bahia in Serie A (matchday 13). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time.
Current Form
Bahia's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bahia's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Santos (all games): 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2025, ended Bahia 2–0 Santos — a Bahia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bahia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Santos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 50% versus Santos 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Santos 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.83 xG and Santos 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.070 / defence 0.890 | Santos attack 1.051 / defence 1.146. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.034. Data: built from Bahia's last 49 games and Santos's last 50.
Result probabilities: Bahia 57% | Draw 24% | Santos 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.76 | Draw 4.15 | Santos 5.28. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (57%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bahia 30% (last 10 home games) | Santos 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, matchday 13 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Saturday 25 April 2026 at 22:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 57% | Draw 24% | Santos 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Bahia 1.83 / Santos 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.070 / def 0.890 | Santos attack 1.051 / def 1.146 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Bahia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Santos xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Santos FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Santos kick off?
Bahia vs Santos kicked off at 22:30 UK time on Saturday 25 April 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Santos?
Bahia 2 - 2 Santos.
Where is Bahia vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Santos part of?
Bahia vs Santos is a Serie A fixture (matchday 13) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 57% chance of winning, Santos a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bahia and Santos will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bahia vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.07) and Santos's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Santos's attack (1.05x) against Bahia's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 49 games and Santos's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.15
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.80
0.97
Santos xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
16%
6.24
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
32.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Santos Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bahia and 0.97 for Santos, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Santos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 17W 9D 12L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Santos's form line: 12W 11D 15L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Bahia against 1.24 for Santos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.37 PPG from their last 19 home games (14W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Santos have gone 4W 5D 10L from their last 19 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
Bahia (Home) vs Santos (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Bahia vs Santos Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Santos in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 17W 9D 12L in their last 38 games (1.58 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 11D 15L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Santos away?
Bahia's home record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.37 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Bahia or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Santos in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bahia won Bahia 3-0 Santos on 30 May 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bahia have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Santos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bahia
4
Draws
2
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Santos H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Santos?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 2, Santos have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Santos last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Santos 1-1 Bahia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Santos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 47%, Santos 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 58% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Santos in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Santos Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Santos matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and Santos matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 58% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Santos matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Bahia's recent matches and 63% of Santos's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Santos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 13, as Bahia and Santos drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.83 xG and Santos 0.97 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Santos outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Santos attack 1.05 / defence 1.15, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 57% | Draw 24% | Santos 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Santos 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.58 PPG, Santos 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Santos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.