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Prediction vindicated as Bahia edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bahia beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 2.12 xG and RB Bragantino 0.67 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.19 / defence 0.76 against RB Bragantino attack 0.92 / defence 1.25, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Bahia 71% | Draw 19% | RB Bragantino 10%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 71%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 52%, RB Bragantino 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Bahia's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

RB Bragantino's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Bahia 1.50 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bahia win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights