Bahia vs Mirassol – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bahia at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bahia and Mirassol meet at Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bahia have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Bahia's 2.00 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Mirassol's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bahia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Mirassol in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 1 for Mirassol and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with Bahia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Bahia half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 56% versus Mirassol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Mirassol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.54 xG and Mirassol 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.037 / defence 0.950 | Mirassol attack 0.878 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 1.167. Data: 64 Bahia games / 64 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 22%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Mirassol 4.55. Bahia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bahia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 70% | Mirassol 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 48% | Draw 30% | Mirassol 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Bahia 1.54 / Mirassol 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.037 / def 0.950 | Mirassol attack 0.878 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.400 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Bahia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mirassol xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Mirassol kick off?
Bahia vs Mirassol is scheduled to kick off at 22:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
Where is Bahia vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Mirassol part of?
Bahia vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 48% chance of winning, Mirassol a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bahia and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Bahia and Mirassol in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bahia's attack rating (1.04) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.88x) against Bahia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.34
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.51
0.97
Mirassol xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
18%
5.48
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bahia and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Bahia and 0.97 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 28W 19D 17L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol's form line: 25W 20D 19L from 64 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Bahia against 1.48 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bahia have posted 2.06 PPG from 32 outings (19W 9D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 8W 9D 15L from 32 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bahia are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.44 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 62%.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 28W 19D 17L in their last 64 games (1.61 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 25W 20D 19L in their last 64 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Mirassol away?
Bahia's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.06 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Bahia or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Mirassol in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mirassol won 5-1 on 31 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
1
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Mirassol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Mirassol 1-2 Bahia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 56%, Mirassol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 38% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Mirassol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 38% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Mirassol tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.