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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

Kick-off

Sun 13 Apr 2025

20:00

Venue

Arena Fonte Nova

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bahia Win

53%

Bahia

1.88

31%

Draw

3.25

16%

Mirassol

6.20

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.4%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

11.7%

Draw

2 – 0

11.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.59

Bahia xG

Total xG

2.41

0.81

Mirassol xG

53%
31%
16%
BahiaDrawMirassol

1.88

53%

Home win

3.25

31%

Draw

6.20

16%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

47%

BTTS Yes

2.12

53%

BTTS No

1.89

Clean Sheet

44%

Bahia

2.25

20%

Mirassol

4.92

Win to Nil

24%

Bahia

4.24

3%

Mirassol

30.50

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.0 7.3 3.0 0.8 0.2
1 14.4 11.7 4.7 1.3 0.3
2 11.5 9.3 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 6.1 4.9 2.0 0.5 0.1
4 2.4 2.0 0.8 0.2
5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.594
λ Away (xG) 0.811
Total xG 2.405
League avg home goals 1.435
League avg away goals 0.897
Bahia attack strength 0.927
Bahia defence strength 1.026
Mirassol attack strength 0.881
Mirassol defence strength 1.198
Data phase Blended
Games used (H/A) 40 / 2