Bahia 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 20 as Bahia welcome Internacional to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bahia — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bahia's home record at Arena Fonte Nova: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Internacional have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.20 (Internacional). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Internacional have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 1 for Bahia.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Internacional winning.
It is worth noting that Internacional have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Internacional trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 50% | Internacional 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.11 xG and Internacional 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.036 / defence 0.930 | Internacional attack 0.844 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.040. Internacional's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Bahia games / 52 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 26%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Internacional 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bahia at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.92 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Internacional 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Bahia 1.11 / Internacional 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.036 / def 0.930 | Internacional attack 0.844 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Bahia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Internacional xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Internacional kick off?
Bahia vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Internacional?
Bahia 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Bahia vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Internacional part of?
Bahia vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 41% chance of winning, Internacional a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bahia and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Internacional?
Record (5 meetings): Bahia 1W | Draws 0 | Internacional 4W.
What form are Bahia and Internacional in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Internacional (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Internacional's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
41%
2.41
32%
3.08
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.92
0.82
Internacional xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bahia and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bahia and 0.82 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia's recent record stands at 19W 12D 21L from 52 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 18L across 52 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.33 PPG, Internacional on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 14W 5D 7L from 26 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Internacional's away record stands at 9W 6D 11L across 26 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.12 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Internacional in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 19W 12D 21L in their last 52 games (1.33 PPG), while Internacional have gone 20W 14D 18L in their last 52 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Internacional away?
Bahia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.81 PPG; Internacional away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Bahia or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Internacional in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Internacional runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Internacional 0-1 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 50%, Internacional 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Bahia) and 35% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Internacional in 31%; Internacional in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bahia's recent matches and 42% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Bahia's recent games and 35% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Internacional tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Internacional in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bahia and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 20, as Bahia and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.11 xG and Internacional 0.82 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.04 / defence 0.93 against Internacional attack 0.84 / defence 0.79, drawn from 57/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 41% | Draw 32% | Internacional 26%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 50%, Internacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.33 PPG, Internacional 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.