Bahia 0-3 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as Bahia welcome Cuiaba to Arena Fonte Nova. Kick-off is set for Thursday 9 November 2023 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bahia at Arena Fonte Nova this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Bahia) versus 1.30 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bahia, 0 for Cuiaba and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Jul 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bahia trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cuiaba trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 44% versus Cuiaba 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 47% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 0.94 xG and Cuiaba 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.990 / defence 0.891 | Cuiaba attack 0.815 / defence 0.710. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.067. Cuiaba's defence strength of 0.710 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Bahia games / 70 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 37% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 28%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 2.70 | Draw 2.86 | Cuiaba 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.71. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.71 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bahia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bahia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.71 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 40% | Cuiaba 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Nov 2023, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 37% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 33% | xG Bahia 0.94 / Cuiaba 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.990 / def 0.891 | Cuiaba attack 0.815 / def 0.710 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.067 • Poisson stance: Bahia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Cuiaba kick off?
Bahia vs Cuiaba kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 9 November 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Bahia 0 - 3 Cuiaba.
Where is Bahia vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cuiaba part of?
Bahia vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 37% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 28% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bahia and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Record (3 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 3 | Cuiaba 0W.
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in?
Bahia (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bahia's attack rating (0.99) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
37%
2.70
35%
2.85
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bahia xG
Total xG
1.71
0.78
Cuiaba xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
11%
9.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.1 | 14.0 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.8%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bahia and 0.78 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 1.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bahia come into this having played 32 games, going 10W 7D 15L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.16 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bahia's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (7W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.97 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 10W 7D 15L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cuiaba away?
Bahia's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.67 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2023, when Cuiaba won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bahia's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bahia
3
Draws
2
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Cuiaba have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 60%, Cuiaba 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bahia) and 20% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Cuiaba in 40%; Cuiaba in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Bahia's recent matches and 20% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bahia's recent games and 20% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cuiaba run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Bahia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Bahia 0-3 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 0.94 xG and Cuiaba 0.78 xG, a combined 1.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cuiaba outscored their 0.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 0.99 / defence 0.89 against Cuiaba attack 0.81 / defence 0.71, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 37% | Draw 35% | Cuiaba 28%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 47%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.16 PPG, Cuiaba 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cuiaba (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.