Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bahia at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bahia face Cruzeiro.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bahia welcome Cruzeiro to Arena Fonte Nova in Serie A (matchday 15). Kick-off is Sunday 10 May 2026 at 01:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bahia have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Bahia have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Bahia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cruzeiro stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cruzeiro's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bahia 1.40 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Bahia, 3 for Cruzeiro and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2025, ended Bahia 1–2 Cruzeiro — a Cruzeiro win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cruzeiro in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 54% versus Cruzeiro 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 51% | Cruzeiro 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.83 xG and Cruzeiro 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.094 / defence 0.961 | Cruzeiro attack 0.902 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.097. Data: built from Bahia's last 51 games and Cruzeiro's last 52.
Result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 1.72 | Draw 4.42 | Cruzeiro 5.20. The model has a clear lean to Bahia (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bahia are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bahia 30% (last 10 home games) | Cruzeiro 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, matchday 15 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 01:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Bahia 1.83 / Cruzeiro 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.094 / def 0.961 | Cruzeiro attack 0.902 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Bahia (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Cruzeiro xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bahia vs Cruzeiro FAQs
What time does Bahia vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:00 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia 1 - 2 Cruzeiro.
Where is Bahia vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Cruzeiro part of?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro is a Serie A fixture (matchday 15) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 58% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bahia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bahia and Cruzeiro will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bahia vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.09x the league average against Cruzeiro's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bahia's last 51 games and Cruzeiro's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.42
19%
5.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.79
0.95
Cruzeiro xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.20
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
32.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.8 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bahia vs Cruzeiro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Bahia and 0.95 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia's recent record stands at 32W 17D 27L from 76 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Cruzeiro, meanwhile, have gone 33W 23D 20L across 76 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bahia on 1.49 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bahia have managed 25W 6D 7L from their last 38 home games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cruzeiro's away record stands at 10W 14D 14L across their last 38 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cruzeiro's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.29 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
Bahia (Home) vs Cruzeiro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bahia
Current Season
Cruzeiro
Current Season
❓ Bahia vs Cruzeiro Form FAQs
What form are Bahia and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 32W 17D 27L in their last 76 games (1.49 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 33W 23D 20L in their last 76 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Cruzeiro away?
Bahia's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 2.13 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bahia or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Cruzeiro have taken the most recent 4 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2023, when Cruzeiro won Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia.
Bahia's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Bahia
2
Draws
5
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Bahia vs Cruzeiro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bahia have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Cruzeiro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Cruzeiro 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bahia) and 32% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 40%; Cruzeiro in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bahia vs Cruzeiro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bahia and Cruzeiro matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 32% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bahia and Cruzeiro matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bahia's recent games and 32% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Cruzeiro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Bahia's recent matches and 63% of Cruzeiro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cruzeiro defy the odds to beat Bahia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Bahia 1-2 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.83 xG and Cruzeiro 0.95 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bahia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.95 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.09 / defence 0.96 against Cruzeiro attack 0.90 / defence 1.15, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 58% | Draw 23% | Cruzeiro 19%, with Bahia to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 51%, Cruzeiro 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bahia 1.49 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Bahia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.