Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense – Predictions
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bahia's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Atletico Goianiense's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — Atletico Goianiense's attack (0.74x) against Bahia's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 75/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bahia Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.69
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.43
0.81
Atletico Goianiense xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
3%
29.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Bahia and Atletico Goianiense expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Bahia and 0.81 for Atletico Goianiense, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Atletico Goianiense?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.