Avai 1-1 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Avai at 40%, yet in-form Atletico Paranaense provide a compelling counter-argument — this Avai vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Atletico Paranaense travel to Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva to take on Avai. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Avai — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Avai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Avai have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Avai are significantly better at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico Paranaense have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Atletico Paranaense — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Avai, 1 for Atletico Paranaense and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Avai in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avai 60% versus Atletico Paranaense 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avai 52% | Atletico Paranaense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avai 1.33 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avai attack 0.921 / defence 1.312 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.991 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 0.919. Data: 25 Avai games / 63 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avai 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 33%. Fair-value odds: Avai 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Atletico Paranaense 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Avai are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Atletico Paranaense (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Avai offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Avai 80% | Atletico Paranaense 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avai vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avai 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Avai 1.33 / Atletico Paranaense 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Avai attack 0.921 / def 1.312 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.991 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.295 / away 0.919 • Poisson stance: Avai (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Avai xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Atletico Paranaense xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avai vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Avai vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What was the final score in Avai vs Atletico Paranaense?
Avai 1 - 1 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Avai vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva.
What competition is Avai vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Avai vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Avai vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Avai a 40% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Avai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avai vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Avai and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Avai vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Avai 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Avai and Atletico Paranaense in?
Avai (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Avai's attack at 0.92x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico Paranaense's attack versus Avai's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avai Win
40%
2.50
27%
3.74
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Avai xG
Total xG
2.53
1.20
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avai vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Avai and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Avai and 1.20 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Avai vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Avai's recent record stands at 6W 6D 13L from 25 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Avai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense, meanwhile, have gone 12W 6D 7L across 25 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atletico Paranaense by 0.72 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Avai heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Avai have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Avai are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's away record stands at 5W 2D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Avai are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.20 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Avai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Atletico Paranaense in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avai
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avai and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Avai have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 12W 6D 7L in their last 25 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avai at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Avai's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avai at home: 1.50 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Avai or Atletico Paranaense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avai have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Atletico Paranaense in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avai and Atletico Paranaense runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avai
1
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avai and Atletico Paranaense?
From 2 meetings on record, Avai have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avai and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Avai 1-1 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Avai and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Atletico Paranaense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avai 75%, Atletico Paranaense 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Avai) and 42% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 42%; Atletico Paranaense in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avai home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avai play Atletico Paranaense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Avai's recent matches and 33% of Atletico Paranaense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avai vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Avai's recent games and 42% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Avai and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Avai have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avai and Atletico Paranaense share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Regular Season - 26, as Avai and Atletico Paranaense drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avai 1.33 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.20 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avai attack 0.92 / defence 1.31 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.99 / defence 1.12, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avai 40% | Draw 27% | Atletico Paranaense 33%, with Avai to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avai 52%, Atletico Paranaense 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avai's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Paranaense arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.