Atletico Paranaense 1-0 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 5 as Atletico Paranaense welcome Vasco DA Gama to Ligga Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Atletico Paranaense at Ligga Arena this season: 4W 6D 0L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Ligga Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vasco DA Gama stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Atletico Paranaense) versus 1.50 (Vasco DA Gama). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 0 for Vasco DA Gama and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 55% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Atletico Paranaense 40% | Vasco DA Gama 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.82 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.291 / defence 0.775 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.954 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.062. Atletico Paranaense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Atletico Paranaense's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Atletico Paranaense games / 42 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 14%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Vasco DA Gama 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Paranaense (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.61 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Atletico Paranaense 70% | Vasco DA Gama 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 60% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.82 / Vasco DA Gama 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.291 / def 0.775 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.954 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Vasco DA Gama xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 0 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 60% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (2 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 1W | Draws 1 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (1.29) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vasco DA Gama's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.89
14%
7.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.61
0.79
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
7.16
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
44.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.79 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 14W 14D 10L from 38 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 17L across 38 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atletico Paranaense on 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 10W 8D 1L from 19 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Atletico Paranaense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 3W 7D 9L across 19 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Current Season
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 2.00 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 11 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Vasco DA Gama have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Vasco DA Gama specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
2
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama?
From 5 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Vasco DA Gama have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 1-0 Atletico Paranaense.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 63%, Vasco DA Gama 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Atletico Paranaense) and 32% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Vasco DA Gama?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 58% of Vasco DA Gama's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 32% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atletico Paranaense edge out Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.82 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.29 / defence 0.78 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 60% | Draw 26% | Vasco DA Gama 14%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 40%, Vasco DA Gama 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.47 PPG, Vasco DA Gama 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atletico Paranaense win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.