Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Atletico Paranaense's attack rating (0.92) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (0.77x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
50%
1.98
30%
3.32
20%
5.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.22
0.80
RB Bragantino xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.13
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
5%
21.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.80 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.