Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Juventude – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ligga Arena plays host to Atletico Paranaense versus Juventude in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 18 August 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ligga Arena, Atletico Paranaense have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Atletico Paranaense are significantly better at Ligga Arena than their overall form suggests.
Juventude have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Atletico Paranaense, 0.90 for Juventude — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, Atletico Paranaense are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Atletico Paranaense and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Atletico Paranaense — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Juventude — key trading statistics (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 48% versus Juventude 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 38% | Juventude 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.68 xG and Juventude 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.967 / defence 1.154 | Juventude attack 0.800 / defence 1.347. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.054. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.347 — this is suppressing Atletico Paranaense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Atletico Paranaense games / 21 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 25% | Juventude 21%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Juventude 4.76. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Paranaense are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atletico Paranaense 50% | Juventude 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 25% | Juventude 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.68 / Juventude 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.967 / def 1.154 | Juventude attack 0.800 / def 1.347 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?
Atletico Paranaense 1 - 2 Juventude.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 54% chance of winning, Juventude a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Juventude?
Record (5 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 4W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Juventude in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Juventude (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Juventude's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.80x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 58/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
54%
1.86
25%
4.04
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.66
0.97
Juventude xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
4%
25.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.97 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atletico Paranaense come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 5D 8L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.19 PPG from 21 outings (6W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Atletico Paranaense against 1.19 for Juventude. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atletico Paranaense's home form reads 4W 2D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.22 points per game from 9 outings (0W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juventude's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Paranaense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Juventude in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Juventude have gone 6W 7D 8L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Juventude away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.56 PPG; Juventude away: 0.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 0-3 on 6 Jun 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
1
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Juventude?
From 6 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 4, Juventude have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2024, when Atletico Paranaense 1-2 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Juventude?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Atletico Paranaense, 78% for Juventude — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atletico Paranaense) and 56% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 78% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 56% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Juventude tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Juventude in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Juventude defy the odds to beat Atletico Paranaense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Atletico Paranaense 1-2 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.68 xG and Juventude 0.97 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juventude outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Juventude attack 0.80 / defence 1.35, drawn from 58/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 54% | Draw 25% | Juventude 21%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Juventude win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 38%, Juventude 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Juventude's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atletico Paranaense 1.38 PPG, Juventude 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventude (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.