Atletico Paranaense 2-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coritiba at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atletico Paranaense face Coritiba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Coritiba travel to Arena da Baixada to take on Atletico Paranaense in Serie A (matchday 8). The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Atletico Paranaense's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Atletico Paranaense, 1 for Coritiba and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Atletico Paranaense 0–2 Coritiba — a Coritiba win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG and Coritiba 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.878 / defence 1.094 | Coritiba attack 1.165 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.101. Data: built from Atletico Paranaense's last 6 games and Coritiba's last 7.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 29% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 44%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.41 | Draw 3.75 | Coritiba 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coritiba are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coritiba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 29% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.09 / Coritiba 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.878 / def 1.094 | Coritiba attack 1.165 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Coritiba (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Coritiba xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba FAQs
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 29% chance of winning, Coritiba a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coritiba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 0.88x the league average against Coritiba's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Paranaense's last 6 games and Coritiba's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coritiba Win
29%
3.41
27%
3.75
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.50
1.40
Coritiba xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
7%
13.88
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.40 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Atletico Paranaense (Home) vs Coritiba (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Coritiba
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Atletico Paranaense
1
Draws
1
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Paranaense have won 4, Coritiba have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Coritiba 3-3 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Paranaense cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Coritiba 2-0 at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.09 xG and Coritiba 1.40 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Coritiba attack 1.17 / defence 0.87, drawn from 6/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 29% | Draw 27% | Coritiba 44%, with Coritiba to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Atletico Paranaense win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.