Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ligga Arena plays host to Atletico Paranaense versus Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 5 October 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Atletico Paranaense (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense at Ligga Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Botafogo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Botafogo have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Botafogo are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Atletico Paranaense register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Botafogo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Atletico Paranaense 2W, Botafogo 1W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Atletico Paranaense half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 53% versus Botafogo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 38% | Botafogo 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 0.98 xG and Botafogo 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.832 / defence 1.261 | Botafogo attack 1.291 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 0.981. Botafogo have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Atletico Paranaense games / 66 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 23% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 52%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Botafogo 1.92. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: Atletico Paranaense 70% | Botafogo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 23% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Atletico Paranaense 0.98 / Botafogo 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.832 / def 1.261 | Botafogo attack 1.291 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.358 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Botafogo xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 23% chance of winning, Botafogo a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
Record (5 meetings): Atletico Paranaense 2W | Draws 2 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo in?
Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Atletico Paranaense's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Botafogo's attack (1.29x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 64/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
23%
4.31
25%
3.99
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.58
1.60
Botafogo xG
4.31
23%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
5%
21.25
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 12.1 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.60 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Atletico Paranaense have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 22W 21D 21L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo's form line: 33W 16D 15L from 64 games, 1.80 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Botafogo are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Atletico Paranaense.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Atletico Paranaense have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (14W 11D 6L).
On the road, Botafogo have gone 12W 10D 9L from 31 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.56 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 21D 21L in their last 64 games (1.36 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 33W 16D 15L in their last 64 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Botafogo away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.71 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Botafogo in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 29 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Botafogo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
From 7 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2026, when Atletico Paranaense 4-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 61%, Botafogo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Atletico Paranaense) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Botafogo in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atletico Paranaense play Botafogo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Atletico Paranaense's games and 52% of Botafogo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atletico Paranaense vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Botafogo tend to score early?
Atletico Paranaense have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Atletico Paranaense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Atletico Paranaense 0-1 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 0.98 xG and Botafogo 1.60 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Botafogo attack 1.29 / defence 0.87, drawn from 64/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 23% | Draw 25% | Botafogo 52%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 38%, Botafogo 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.