Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Kick-off

Sun 7 Dec 2025

19:00

Venue

MRV Arena

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atletico-MG Win

42%

Atletico-MG

2.39

26%

Draw

3.81

32%

Vasco DA Gama

3.13

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.5%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.5%

Home win

0 – 1

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.40

Atletico-MG xG

Total xG

2.59

1.19

Vasco DA Gama xG

42%
26%
32%
Atletico-MGDrawVasco DA Gama

2.39

42%

Home win

3.81

26%

Draw

3.13

32%

Away win

Goals Markets

73%

Over 1.5

1.37

27%

Under 1.5

3.70

48%

Over 2.5

2.08

52%

Under 2.5

1.92

26%

Over 3.5

3.85

74%

Under 3.5

1.35

12%

Over 4.5

8.33

88%

Under 4.5

1.14

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

53%

BTTS Yes

1.90

47%

BTTS No

2.11

Clean Sheet

30%

Atletico-MG

3.29

25%

Vasco DA Gama

4.06

Win to Nil

13%

Atletico-MG

7.88

8%

Vasco DA Gama

12.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.5 8.9 5.3 2.1 0.6 0.1
1 10.5 12.5 7.4 3.0 0.9 0.2
2 7.3 8.8 5.2 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 3.4 4.1 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1
4 1.2 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.402
λ Away (xG) 1.192
Total xG 2.594
League avg home goals 1.499
League avg away goals 1.028
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.942
Atletico-MG defence strength 1.069
Vasco DA Gama attack strength 1.084
Vasco DA Gama defence strength 0.993
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 75 / 75