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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Atletico-MG.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palmeiras beat Atletico-MG 0-3 at MRV Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico-MG 1.52 xG and Palmeiras 1.20 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Atletico-MG fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Palmeiras outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico-MG attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Palmeiras attack 1.25 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Atletico-MG 45% | Draw 25% | Palmeiras 30%, with Atletico-MG to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico-MG 46%, Palmeiras 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Atletico-MG's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Palmeiras's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Atletico-MG (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights