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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

Kick-off

Thu 16 Oct 2025

01:30

Venue

MRV Arena

Competition

Serie A

Brazil

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Cruzeiro Win

30%

Atletico-MG

3.33

33%

Draw

2.99

36%

Cruzeiro

2.74

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 0

17.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

16.3%

Away win

1 – 0

14.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.81

Atletico-MG xG

Total xG

1.74

0.93

Cruzeiro xG

30%
33%
36%
Atletico-MGDrawCruzeiro

3.33

30%

Home win

2.99

33%

Draw

2.74

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

52%

Over 1.5

1.92

48%

Under 1.5

2.08

25%

Over 2.5

4.00

75%

Under 2.5

1.33

10%

Over 3.5

10.00

90%

Under 3.5

1.11

3%

Over 4.5

33.33

97%

Under 4.5

1.03

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

34%

BTTS Yes

2.97

66%

BTTS No

1.51

Clean Sheet

39%

Atletico-MG

2.53

44%

Cruzeiro

2.25

Win to Nil

12%

Atletico-MG

8.43

16%

Cruzeiro

6.17

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 17.5 16.3 7.6 2.3 0.5 0.1
1 14.2 13.2 6.1 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 5.8 5.4 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 1.6 1.5 0.7 0.2
4 0.3 0.3 0.1
5 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.812
λ Away (xG) 0.929
Total xG 1.741
League avg home goals 1.433
League avg away goals 1.033
Atletico-MG attack strength 0.884
Atletico-MG defence strength 0.943
Cruzeiro attack strength 0.954
Cruzeiro defence strength 0.641
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 64 / 65